Almost seven years have passed since the Brexit referendum. And a debate is to take place in Westminster about whether there should be an independent investigation into the impacts and outcomes of Brexit in the UK. The debate was triggered by an online petition started by European Movement campaigner Peter Packham which has so far been signed by around 175,000 people.
It will be interesting to see if there’s any mention of Wales in the debate or whether, as is so often the case, the nation will be overlooked or treated as an afterthought. The European Movement says, “It is time the people of this country were told the truth about Brexit, good or bad.” This truth must include the impacts of Brexterity on Wales specifically. There is widespread Welsh support for a Brexit inquiry.
Brexterity in Wales
In 2021, the Wales Centre for Public Policy produced an evidence briefing paper stating that Brexit would “reduce Wales’s economic output, exacerbate existing inequalities, and hamper public spending due to lower tax receipts and the loss of EU structural funding.” It identified a reduction in the Welsh working age population affecting key labour market sectors including the NHS; disadvantages for Welsh agriculture; and “implications for the future trajectory of devolution.”
There are already clear problems for the creative industries and Welsh creatives. Bylines Cymru is currently investigating complex and widespread impacts on the Welsh voluntary sector, including those on the Wales Council for Voluntary Action (WCVA) itself, which has had to lay off around half of its pre-Brexit-era staff.
Public Health Wales has flagged such impacts as reduced or delayed access to new medicines, clinical trials, and devices; reduced health protection capability; reduced recruitment and retention of workers in health and social care; loss of or reduced funding for research and development, infrastructure, and tackling inequalities; and the mental health and well-being impacts of uncertainty about the future.
Welsh ports are being left behind which, according to an article published by LSE, “illustrates key weaknesses in the UK’s constitutional approach to devolution; the inability of the devolved institutions to affect UK government planning on centralised issues, even where the decisions can have serious repercussions ‘on the ground’ … [and] the extent to which issues affecting Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to force themselves onto the UK government agenda.”
Nobody voted for this
At a time when Brexit is too often the elephant in the room, it can be difficult to quantify its effects precisely. But quantify them we must. As Geraint Davies, Labour (Co-op) Member of Parliament for Swansea West says, we can’t make effective plans without viewing the present with clear eyes: “Brexit has happened so we need to mitigate the damage by rebuilding EU trade and cooperation. A public inquiry into the impact of Brexit is essential for us to understand what’s best for us to move forward for the good of our country and for all our futures.”
Jackie Jones is a politician, barrister, and academic who was the MEP for Wales from 2019-2020, and is the Welsh Labour (Coop) Councillor for Cardiff, Whitchurch, and Tongwynlais. She says, “Wales, one of the most underfunded areas of the UK, has been severely affected by lack of EU funding. For example, Pembrokeshire received no money at all in the last levelling up round that was supposed to replace key EU funding. The fishers and farmers are increasingly aware how broken Tory promises are. That £350m promised on that now infamous bus: where is it?”
The Rt Hon Liz Saville Roberts, Plaid Cymru MP for Dwyfor Meirionnydd, is also asking for a Brexit inquiry: “Three years since leaving the European Union, the dire warnings of economic decline are coming to pass. The UK has the lowest growth rate among G7 countries and the IMF forecasts that it will be the only leading economy to shrink this year. While Brexit is not the only factor, its importance cannot be denied.”
“Welsh businesses are struggling to cope with mountains of Brexit red tape to trade with our nearest neighbours. Many have simply stopped bothering. The UK government’s failure to replace EU investment programmes is set to leave permanent scars on Wales – both economic and social. The Welsh budget is more than £1.1bn lower due to substandard replacement programmes. Nobody voted for this.”
“Those who promised what will never be delivered have much to answer for. It’s time for a public inquiry to be established to disclose the full impact of Brexit on our trade, economy, and opportunities for young people. If the UK Government truly believes that Brexit has delivered the benefits promised, then it should welcome the opportunity to prove it through a comprehensive and impartial inquiry.”
Billions lost to Brexterity
Paul Willner is Emeritus Professor of Psychology at Swansea University and a Director of Wales for Europe. He is concerned that “Westminster Hall debates do not lead to a meaningful vote. They are often attended by only a handful of MPs, and have little or no impact. This debate must be different. It has been demanded – unusually – by MPs from all parties. It must start a process that leads to an actual inquiry.”
Willner notes: “From being the best-performing economy in the developed world, we are now vying with Russia to be the worst. Whole industries – agriculture, hospitality, the care sector and, perhaps most concerning, the NHS – have been hollowed out over the last few years to the point of collapse. The increase in red tape – which we were promised would reduce – has meant British bands are unable to tour in Europe and EU bands are denied entry to the UK. The loss of freedom of movement can be devastating. Food prices are worse than in almost all EU countries, and we are paying almost twice the EU average to heat our homes.”
“The impact of Brexit is felt particularly severely in Wales, which prior to Brexit exported more to the EU (61%) than did the rest of the UK (48%). As a consequence, the Wales Centre for Public Policy has estimated a £1.1bn hit to Welsh exports, with a particular impact on machinery exports owing to ‘rules of origin’ requirements, and a 30% decrease in traffic through the Welsh ports of Fishguard and Holyhead.”
Willner says: “Doubtless many factors are responsible for the many ways the UK has become economically and culturally poorer over the past six years. But Brexit is undoubtedly one, and an independent enquiry is urgently needed to establish the extent to which it is responsible. It is astonishing that there has been no independent scrutiny of the impact of the biggest constitutional change this country has seen since the introduction of universal suffrage.”
The UK government’s response prior to tomorrow’s debate is not one to inspire hope that ‘the will of the people’ will be observed on this occasion. It issued a statement saying it does not believe “the UK’s departure from the EU to be an appropriate subject for a public inquiry. The government’s policies regarding the UK’s new relationship with the EU are subject to parliamentary scrutiny.”
As with seemingly every ministerial interview nowadays, that’s an answer to questions that weren’t asked, in place of answers to questions that are being asked, by many, across the political and civil spectrum. Wales deserves answers.
