They say 24 hours is a long time in politics. All I can say is that two weeks during a general election period certainly is!
Since our last catch-up in ‘Wales on Wednesday’, the general election campaigns of all the major parties are in full swing. There’s been televised debates, drama, gaffes, and pledges galore. Let’s have a recap of the last fortnight.
Labour
Labour’s campaign in Wales has so far been deeply uninspiring in my view and, in many ways, controversial. The tagline of ‘vote for change’ in terms of substance seems to be a change in the colour of the winning party’s rosette, at best. This was clearly exposed during Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens’ interview on S4C’s Y Byd Yn Ei Le.
Stevens claimed that HS2 doesn’t exist, refused to rule out any future skulduggery in depriving Wales of Barnett consequentials, undermined the Senedd, undermined the Welsh Government, and basically came across as a Governor General in waiting. Stevens also proclaimed that Vaughan Gething has her full support, words that may come back to haunt her.
When it was pointed out that some of her positions are at odds with her party’s regional branch, which leads the current Welsh Government, Stevens made it clear that devolution is a one-way street. And that one-way street leads to Westminster. The Labour Welsh Government has previously called for the devolution of justice and payment of HS2 Barnett consequentials Wales is owed, and flirted with so-called ‘radical federalism’. These major Welsh Labour policies are now apparently dead.
The dismissal of the democratic voice of Wales as a “gimmick” or “political stunt” is a worrying sign of things to come from a Labour UK Government. Gething lost a vote of confidence because two of his own MS’s chose not to support him, it’s that simple. This happened weeks ago, yet he still clings on and is seemingly blaming nearly everyone else for the situation he now finds himself in.
Despite all that, the Labour Party are on course for a thumping victory in Wales, looking set to claim 27 of 32 seats. That’s 84% of the seats on 40% ish of the vote – it’s not hard to see why Keir Starmer hasn’t listened to calls for proportional representation.
It remains to be seen whether Labour are riding high purely on an anti-Tory ticket or whether – as party loyalists would have us believe – because Starmer and his policies are widely popular. With just a fortnight to go until the UK goes to the polls, it seems impossible for Labour to lose what is projected to be a ridiculously large majority, despite the majority of Welsh voters predicted not to want them.
Conservatives
We’re a few weeks on from the Conservative Party’s Welsh launch, in Andrew RT Davies’ combine harvester shed, and it’s fair to say things are far from rosy for the Tories. Craig Williams, the only one projected to comfortably hold his seat, decided to shoot himself in the foot by landing himself at the mercy of a gambling probe. Williams placed “a flutter” with the bookies on when the general election would be called, just days before Rishi Sunak called it. Williams is an aide to Sunak.
I’ve previously touched on the police investigation into Conservative Shadow Minister Laura Anne Jones MS, for the alleged falsification of expenses claims. No news on that particular issue. However, Jones found herself at the centre of another controversy, as the contents of a WhatsApp group were leaked to Nation.Cymru.
The group contained Jones and staffers.
The staffers exchanged what have been described as “toxic” and “hurtful” messages. One of the staffers in question, Conservative Westminster candidate Joel Williams, has since apologised. The messages mocked the late father of a Conservative MS and criticised another Tory MS for being “lazy”, as well as criticising a firework display for being “woke” and for “gays”.
So all-in-all, things are not going well for Conservative election campaign. And they find themselves on level-pegging with Nigel Farage’s latest vehicle in the polls. Indeed, in one poll they were overtaken by Reform UK. That said, they’re putting a lot of effort into holding Monmouthshire and Pembrokeshire – being very visible and canvassing hard.
It still looks likely that the Tories may only keep the one seat: Williams in Montgomeryshire, despite his gambling woes. The Liberal Democrats are pushing for the Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe seat, which seems on a knife edge. Those hoping for a Conservative wipe-out have a realistic chance of seeing their dreams come true.
Plaid Cymru
In stark contrast to the two major parties in Wales, Plaid Cymru’s campaign is solely focussed on Welsh issues and offering substantive change to the status quo. Rhun ap Iorwerth has made a big impact in UK television debates, scoring highly in resulting polls with UK-wide viewers.
Plaid’s message is to present a vision which is ambitious for Wales and built on fairness. As such, the party is calling for the payment of the so-far denied HS2 funds, immediate devolution of key elements such as justice and policing, and the commissioning of a green paper and national convention to explore Wales becoming an independent country.
As far as the polls go, it looks like Plaid are well placed to hold onto the enlarged Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion constituencies, likely to take Caerfyrddin, and push Labour all the way for Ynys Môn. The party’s also expected to have a strong showing in Bangor-Aberconwy and Llanelli, though it’s unlikely to give Labour a real scare in either.
It must be said that ap Iorwerth has championed Plaid Cymru’s message at every opportunity on a relentless UK media circuit. He was well received for an impassioned verbal take-down of Nigel Farage over immigration issues, and embarrassing Labour’s Angela Rayner over her party’s support for the two-child cap. I think it’s fair to say that ap Iorwerth is having a very good campaign.
Another positive for Plaid Cymru is that it appears to be nurturing the next generation during this campaign, fielding many younger candidates across the country. It’s found a rising star in Kiera Marshall, its candidate for Cardiff West. She’s running a visible and determined campaign in the capital, coupled with impressive messaging across social and traditional media.
Plaid can already take some big positives out of this campaign, that’ll provide a decent base to build towards the next Senedd election in 2026. One senses that, if the country wasn’t so fatigued with the Conservatives at UK-level, Plaid would be riding much higher in the polls – many who intend to vote Labour are doing so tactically to ‘get the Tories out’.
Ambition for Wales? Absolutely. Plaid’s message to the electorate has consistently been that more Plaid Cymru MPs will mean Labour can be held to account. Whether this will cut through to a large-enough degree remains to be seen. Four seats will be seen as a good election for Plaid. And combined with giving the next generation experience during this campaign, it bodes well for them for 2026.
Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems are going hell for leather to try and gain the Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe seat from the Conservatives. They’re well placed to do so, and are the obvious tactical vote for anyone in that constituency wanting the incumbent out. However, the party’s prospects across the rest of Wales are not on the same level.
Someone seems to have put 50p in the Welsh Lib Dems’ comms team too, as they’re appearing more and more across the media. Jane Dodds has been steadfast in her stance over the myriad Gething issues and the vote of no confidence. Some commentators predicted Dodds would back Gething during the confidence vote, but that’s very much not the case.
Lib Dem UK Leader Ed Davey appears determined to run his campaign as if he’s Mr Tumble, but that appears to be cutting through to a degree. Many polls project that the Lib Dems may be the second-largest party in the next Westminster parliament. What a turnaround that would be for them.
As the Liberal Democrat party is federal, its Welsh manifesto will be published this week. Its UK manifesto promises the devolution of powers such as justice, policing, broadcasting, air passenger duty, and borrowing powers. Let’s be clear – this is light-years ahead of what the Conservatives and Labour are offering Wales. It’ll be interesting to see if there are any surprises, building upon the bold plan to strengthen devolution. Powers over the Crown Estate perhaps?
Green Party
Friday will see the flagship Wales Leader’s Debate on the BBC. At the time of writing, the Greens have been excluded from that debate. It’s scandalous, when the BBC has invited representatives of the Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat, and Reform UK parties/company, but not Greens. It was surely a conscious decision to exclude the Wales Green Party; I can’t get my head around it being incompetence.
To put this in perspective, in the Senedd election of 2021 the Greens had more votes than the Lib Dems and four times those of Reform UK on the proportional vote. Unlike Reform UK, the Greens have elected county councillors across Wales, and are neck-and-neck with the Liberal Democrats in Wales-specific polling. Why have been excluded?
Despite this BBC-shaped setback, the Wales Green Party is having a positive campaign. In stark contrast to Labour, the Greens are championing social justice, housing, fixing the NHS, a fairer tax system, and the environment. These policies have landed well with the public, with Carla Denyer being well received in UK leaders’ debates according to polling.
The Greens are opposed to any further privatisation of the NHS and wish to roll back what’s already been privatised – the opposite approach to what Labour’s Wes Streeting champions. Yes, I know health is a devolved issue, but it is relevant. Increased spending on the English NHS means funding uplifts for Wales via the Barnett Formula.
Reform UK
Nigel Farage is back, this time as leader/company director of Reform UK. You could have caught him earlier this week launching his party’s manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil. Farage decided to launch his “contract” of commitments in the Valleys to ‘show’ what it’s like to already have a Labour government.
Reform is standing candidates in nearly every constituency in Wales. Of all the parties campaigning in Wales, Reform had the most ‘parachuted’ candidates of all; that is, people who don’t live in Wales. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this has coincided with gaffes such as candidates not being able to spell the names of their constituencies, or even pronounce them correctly.
Speaking of Reform candidates, several have come to prominence on the UK media scene over the last couple of weeks due to their comments regarding Adolf Hitler. Usually able to dominate any debate or interview, Farage seems to be struggling with media scrutiny this time around, becoming very prickly in interviews. He was shown up several times by ap Iorwerth, Denyer, and the SNP’s Stephen Flynn in the UK leaders’ debates.
The polls aren’t predicting a Reform UK breakthrough in any Welsh seat. However some project that it’s mixing it up with the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru in terms of national vote percentages. Going by the Reform manifesto, if you don’t think the Conservatives have gone far enough on immigration, and want to remove safeguards to your own human rights to go further on immigration, then Reform UK may be the party for you. And Reform says it’ll give you a St David’s Day bank holiday.
General election: what next?
We have just over two weeks to go until polling day. So there’ll surely be many twists and turns to digest in our next ‘Wales on Wednesday’, which will be out on Polling Day Eve. As I said at the beginning, 24 hours is a long time in politics, let alone two weeks! There’s plenty of time for party fortunes to change and we’ll be here to lay it all out for you.
