We can all breathe a sigh of relief – the election campaign is over! It’s now over to you and your vote in the ballot booth tomorrow. Don’t forget to take your picture ID, or you can apply for an emergency proxy vote in some circumstances. Canvassers and volunteers can stick their feet up after weeks and thousands upon thousands of steps on the campaign trail.
The candidates will look on hoping for the best and there’ll be drama and twists aplenty as election night develops, I’m sure. With the culmination of this general election campaign, which seems to have gone on for ages, not much has happened in Welsh politics over the last fortnight. Well, nothing that can’t wait until the next Wales on Wednesday anyway. But the UK game’s afoot at last.
Still much to play for
The final mega-polls released yesterday show that Keir Starmer’s Labour may receive a lower share of the vote in Wales than Labour did last time under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. An interesting development some may call karma and others will call a reflection on Welsh Labour’s performance, should it come to pass.
A Reform UK surge might potentially wipe the Tories off the Welsh political map at Westminster. Plaid Cymru hasn’t really put a foot wrong in this campaign, and seems to have benefitted from the UK media coverage, with the party aiming for a return of four seats. The Liberal Democrats will be hopeful of retaking Brecon, and the Greens look to build a stronger base going into the 2026 Senedd election.
With 26 seats considered a safe bet for Labour by pollsters, there seem likely to be few election night scares. But it isn’t over until it’s over. Let’s take a quick look at some of the seats to watch during the count. Here’s a handy tool to tell you when your constituency is likely to be declared.
Ynys Môn
One of the few constituencies unimpacted by the UK-wide boundary changes, it’s set to be a very interesting night on the island. Most polls, based on uniform swing methodology, have the seat leaning towards Labour. However, a few have had it leaning towards Plaid Cymru.
Plaid has thrown the kitchen sink at winning Ynys Môn. The party’s biggest names paid frequent visits to assist on the campaign trail, and there was a small army of volunteers to canvas and leaflet. Area members seem hopeful that the party will finally return a Plaid MP.
Labour’s campaign has also been energetic, with visits from MPs and even Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor. As with Plaid Cymru, Labour figures on the island seem confident of victory, the main difference being that Labour is keen to portray the Tories as the main opposition there.
The incumbent Conservative MP Virginia Crosbie has come under fire, accused of overpromising on the Wylfa nuclear power site. The polls show that Crosbie is almost certain to lose her seat and come in a distant third at best. However, research shows that the Conservatives have utilised resources in this constituency.
Llinos Medi is Plaid Cymru’s candidate and has been very prominent. She’s a well known figure in local politics, having led the island’s County Council since 2017. She seems a popular candidate and is clearly rated highly by her party. I think this will give Plaid an edge over Labour’s Ieuan Williams. Judging by his campaign messaging, if he misses out on the seat he may have a career on TikTok lined up.
The other candidates for the seat are Leena Farhat (Liberal Democrats), Emmett Jenner (Reform UK), Martin Schwaller (Green), Sir Grumpus L Shorticos (Monster Raving Loony), and Sam Wood (Libertarian).
Brecon, Radnor, and Cwm Tawe
The Tory/Lib Dem battleground of recent elections has expanded to the upper Tawe Valley, bringing with it increased hopes for Labour and Plaid. Wales-only polling is the only reliable barometer to go by. Until the last fortnight the incumbent Conservative MP, Fay Jones, was tipped to hold the seat. But pollsters now tip towards the Liberal Democrats.
David Chadwick will look to retake the seat the Lib Dems lost in 2019. To the surprise of nobody, Welsh Liberal Democrats threw the majority of their resources at the seat, with a helping hand from their UK leader Ed Davey. It’s the ‘tactical vote’ choice for those who wish to see the Tories voted out.
Jones isn’t out of this race, though, and has a fighting chance of holding on. She’s popular with the Conservative base in the constituency and is the Under-Secretary of State for Wales. But Reform UK may erode some of this base and those who usually lean Conservative, which may cost Jones the seat.
Matthew Dorrance is the Labour candidate and has been keen to portray himself as the favourite to win, not least via plenty of creative bar charts. I must point out that Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 3% chance of winning, predicting a vote of around 13%. Labour may be overestimating the level of support it holds in Cwm Tawe.
So tactical voting will play a part in a close race I think will end with a small Lib Dem majority. Though I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jones held the seat. As for Labour, if Electoral Calculus is correct, they’ll finish fourth behind Reform.
Other candidates are Emily Durrant-Munro (Plaid Cymru), Jonathan Harrington (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Adam Hill (Reform UK), Ammi Kaur-Dhaliwal (Green), and Lady Lily The Pink (Monster Raving Loony).
Monmouthshire
This is usually considered a Conservative stronghold, but that may change tomorrow! The boundary alterations added some predominantly Labour-voting areas, which will place current Secretary of State for Wales David TC Davies under pressure to hold his seat.
Catherine Fookes is the Labour candidate, who will be confident in taking the seat held by Davies since 2005. The odds appear in Labour’s favour after a well run campaign that saw many MPs paying supportive visits. That said, the wheeling out of Lord Kinnock yesterday – for a video with a last-minute plea to vote Labour – is perhaps a sign that things are closer than expected on the ground. As with Gordon Brown in Scotland, Kinnock is never called upon in Wales from a position of complete confidence.
Davies represented the constituency for nearly 20 years, with large majorities. That’s not the case this time. Following a disastrous campaign by the Conservatives, coupled with 14 years in government and numerous scandals, it’s going to be difficult for him to return to Westminster. But he and his team hit the campaign trail hard and, as Secretary of State for Wales, one would imagine he enjoyed the party’s resources to do so.
I have a sneaky feeling that Davies isn’t out of this race yet, and lean towards him holding the seat by the slimmest of slim margins. Is Davies viewed by his usual voters as Reform-like enough for them not to back Nigel Farage’s party instead? If not, I’ll be unsurprised if Fookes powers through to a win, as Welsh polling suggests.
The other candidates are Ioan Bellin (Plaid Cymru), Ian Chandler (Green), June Davies (True & Fair), Owen Lewis (Independent), Emma Meredith (Heritage), Bill Powell (Liberal Democrats), and Max Windsor-Peplow (Reform UK).
Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr
This had been considered the Conservatives’ safest seat. That all changed when the incumbent Craig Williams was caught up in the betting scandal that engulfed the Conservative campaign, resulting in him being dropped by the party last week. The now-independent Williams dropped from being the favourite for the seat to having an outside chance of winning.
The boundary changes saw predominantly Labour-voting parts of Cefn Mawr being added into the constituency, exacerbating Williams’ woes. He’s also facing Reform UK’s leader in Wales, Oliver Lewis, who’ll likely eat into the traditional Conservative vote to a substantive degree. In short, it’s looking woeful for Williams.
Steve Witherden looks the odds-on favourite to take the constituency for Labour, with his chances rated at 75% by Electoral Calculus. The Tory candidate nuking his own campaign and Reform chasing the Conservative vote leaves Labour sitting pretty in this constituency.
Lewis, who you may remember from the leadership debates, is in with a chance of challenging for the seat, albeit a remote chance. He looks set to be the main beneficiary of the fallout from the Tory betting scandal. Will he hoover up enough Conservative voters to give Labour a scare?
A Labour win seems most likely here, with Reform and the Conservatives canceling each other out. Had Williams not placed a bet on the election date, this would have been a very different analysis.
Other candidates for Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr are Jeremy Bignell-Thorp (Green), Glyn Preston (Liberal Democrats), and Elwyn Vaughan (Plaid Cymru).
Caerfyrddin
This is a much-changed seat in terms of boundaries, with the previous Plaid heartlands of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr being expanded to include Tory- and Labour-voting areas in the old Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire constituency. Many are therefore predicting a Plaid-Labour battle for the new seat.
Ann Davies of Plaid Cymru appears very well placed, especially given the decision of Jonathan Edwards (the former Plaid MP) not to stand as an independent. Davies has run a very visible campaign supported by the party’s highest-profile figures and a strong team of volunteers. Electoral Calculus places her chances of winning the seat at 76% and I’d have to concur.
Labour’s Martha O’Neil is in with a chance, though, even projected to win by some polls, which buoyed the Labour campaign in Carmarthenshire. But the party isn’t making the same confident noises about the Plaid target seat of Caerfyrddin as it is about Ynys Môn, which is interesting. Make no mistake, a Labour win here would be a very good result for them.
Simon Hart is the incumbent Conservative MP and a former Secretary of State for Wales. However, given the issues experienced by all Tories during their shambolic national campaign, it looks like a big ask for Hart to hold on. The addition of Plaid heartlands to the constituency and a surging Reform UK could well push the Conservatives into third or even fourth place.
I’m leaning confidently towards predicting an Ann Davies victory for Plaid Cymru, with a close battle between Labour, Conservatives, and Reform for the next three places, which could go anyone’s way.
The other candidates for the Caerfyrddin constituency are Will Beasley (Green), Nicholas Beckett (Liberal Democrats), Nancy Cole (Women’s Equality), David Evans (Workers Party of GB), and Bernard Holton (Reform UK).
General election is go
Those are the five constituencies I think will be the most interesting to look out for on election night. I fully expect Plaid Cymru to comfortably hold on to Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Labour to take all other seats. That said, I think there may be an outside chance of Plaid Cymru’s Rhodri Davies giving Labour a scare in Llanelli and Stephen Crabb coming closer than expected for the Tories in Pembrokeshire, given the malodorous Withyhedge scandal.
Remember to take a picture ID with you to vote tomorrow. It can be expired, as long as you still look like its picture. When we return with Wales on Wednesday in a fortnight’s time there will certainly be a lot to dissect from the general election results and developments in the Senedd, as ‘normal’ service resumes. Until then, enjoy election night!
