In 2003, LEGO was close to collapse. A toymaker once found in every child’s toy box had become outdated in a fast-evolving digital world. But it adapted – partnering with global franchises and embracing digital platforms. The company refocused on its core product and reimagined how it engaged with its users.
Wales’ democracy faces its own pivotal redesign. On 7 May 2026, voters will head to the polls to elect an expanded 96-member Senedd, using a voting system known as the D’Hondt method. The electoral map will change; the rules will change – and the choices we make as voters will matter more than ever.
From post-Soviet excitement to Welsh apathy
In the 1990s, the first democratic elections in Eastern Europe resulted in long queues of citizens, many voting for the first time, excited to enter polling stations and to be part of democracy. In the former Soviet bloc, each person was carrying a sense of hope for their country’s future. Wales, by contrast, since devolution arrived in 1999, has struggled to ignite such passion.
At the last Senedd election in 2021, just 46.6% of eligible voters turned out. Yet that was a record high. The apathetic flame burns bright. The hope is that younger voters – Wales leads the UK nations in giving 16 and 17-year-olds the vote – and a more proportional voting system might boost engagement in 2026. Or perhaps the rise of controversial parties – like Reform UK – will polarise the debate and pull more people to the ballot box.
But just turning up isn’t enough. In 2026, it will also be about how we vote – and how strategically we cast our ballots.
Understanding the closed list voting system
At the next election, the Senedd’s 60 members will grow to 96. Each of the 16 new constituencies will elect six members of the Senedd. And you’ll vote for a party, not an individual. This is what’s known as a closed list system.
Each party ranks its candidates from 1 to 6. The share of the vote the party receives determines how many from that list make it into the Senedd. To win one seat, a party needs approximately 13% of the vote in any given constituency.
The D’Hondt formula then allocates seats one at a time by dividing the party’s vote total by 1 plus the number of seats already won. This system tends to favour larger parties. So how does tactical voting work in a closed list system? How do you make your vote have impact?
Tactical voting: four strategies for savvy voters
1. Threshold gaming
If your preferred party – for instance, the Greens or Liberal Democrats – is polling well below the 13% threshold, your vote may be wasted. Instead, you might choose a larger party with similar values – such as Plaid Cymru or Labour – to prevent the seat going to an undesired party – the challenger most likely being Reform UK.
In countries like Spain, smaller parties often form joint tickets to overcome the D’Hondt disadvantage. If the Greens and Lib Dems joined forces in Wales, they could potentially secure six to eight seats instead of none.
2. Blocking a disliked party
If your main concern is keeping a particular party out – say, Reform UK – you can vote for the rival party most likely to beat them. In many areas, this could mean switching from Labour to Plaid Cymru.
3. Coalition engineering
No single party is likely to win 49 seats – the threshold for forming a government. So, if you expect a Plaid-led coalition, you might vote for the party you’d prefer to see in coalition with Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party.
4. Abstention as protest
If none of the other options appeal to you, but you still value your democratic right, you can abstain or spoil your ballot to register dissatisfaction. Spoiled ballots are counted and reported – and are increasingly seen as a form of active protest.
Global precedents
Other countries using closed list systems have long witnessed these tactics:
- Germany: With two votes – one for a party, one for a local MP – voters often use their second vote tactically to help parties clear the 5% threshold.
- Spain: Voters shift between ideologically similar parties to beat thresholds and maximise influence.
- Israel: Despite a low threshold – only 3.25% – strategic voting is common to help coalition partners gain ground.
Could digital voting be the future?
The closed list system is far from perfect. It arguably takes out of your hands who becomes your Senedd representative and gives it to political party executive committees, as it is they who choose candidates for the lists. So, is there an alternative?
In an era where we manage our banking, shopping, and education online, is it time for Wales to embrace digital democracy? Systems like Liquid Democracy, where voters can delegate their vote to someone they trust – and retract it at will – are gaining traction around the world. Could they be next for a modernising Wales?
The tools are changing. The map is redrawn. The stakes are higher. Now, it’s up to Welsh voters to think tactically – not just about who they want in power, but how to make their vote count. Like LEGO, democracy can adapt. But only if people believe in rebuilding it.
