An adjudicated rapist, election interferer, and 34-time-convicted felon was this week sworn in as the ‘leader of the free world’. And Elon Musk – the world’s richest man, social media platform-ruiner, and a close ally of Donald Trump – threw two very clear fascist salutes to a cheering crowd during the inauguration proceedings. It all sets quite a tone for the next four years.
The past fortnight in Welsh politics may seem small potatoes by comparison. However, delve into those we must. There are still important and sometimes unnerving things happening in our small corner of the planet. Some are things we’d be wise to keep an eye on.
Crown Estate confusion
Devolution of the Crown Estate to Wales is a long-held aim of the Labour Party’s Welsh branch. And it’s an increasingly contentious issue, as vast profits made in Wales via these assets are funnelled out of our nation to the UK Treasury, which pays a portion of it to the monarch via the Sovereign Grant.
Net revenue from the Crown Estate has grown steadily due to increasing green energy projects and profits, from £345mn in 2020 to £1.1bn in 2024. Nine of 22 Welsh local authorities have now called for its devolution, to put Wales on a par with Scotland. That nation is far better able to control and make good use of the boons from its natural resources and other assets.
Llinos Medi, the Plaid Cymru MP for Ynys Môn, skewered the UK Government with an awkward question in the House of Commons earlier this week. She enquired as to what discussions have been held between the Labour UK and Welsh governments on the possible devolution of the Crown Estate.
The context here is critical. In November 2024 our First Minister, Eluned Morgan, stated on a BBC Radio phone-in that she’d been fighting hard on Wales’ behalf over the issue. Morgan claimed to have been pushing for Wales to have “more control” over Crown Estate assets on our territory, and that she will keep making the point to Prime Minister Starmer and her other Labour Party colleagues in Westminster.
Whoopsy-daisy
So it came as a surprise that, in reply to Medi’s question, Labour Minister Darren Jones said, “The UK Government has had no discussions with the Welsh Government on devolving the Crown Estate,” the polar opposite of what Morgan had claimed.
It would appear that Jones has dropped Eluned Morgan in it good and proper. His answer also included UK Labour twaddle on the topic – that it’s simply too complex to try devolving the Crown Estate, despite that of Scotland having been unproblematically separated from that of the UK less than a decade ago, under the Scotland Act 2016.
When it’s translated into layman’s terms from Westminsterian, I hear “There’s still massive wealth to be extracted from Wales’ coastlines and high altitudes. We don’t want the pesky Welsh getting in the way of that, when we need this cash in England.”
Has Morgan been caught telling fibs to the Welsh public? There are only two obvious options regarding this scenario – it’s either that, or Jones doesn’t know what’s going on in his own department. Either way, this is a calamitous own-goal for the Labour Party in Wales, and with election season in shouting distance.
Will he or won’t he?
The New European had a scoop on Welsh politics this week. Sources suggest that Andrew RT Davies, the former leader of the Conservative Party in the Senedd, is attempting to negotiate jumping ship to Reform UK Ltd.
This is a possibility we’ve explored previously in this column, as the combative culture warrior’s rhetoric has rapidly aligned with the most hardline fringes of online Reform and Trump supporters. Davies has been involved in several racially-charged controversies in recent months, which have seen him amplified by the racist criminal Stephen Yaxley-Lennon aka Ickle Tommeh Robinson, and condemned for Islamophobic race-baiting by the Muslim Council of Wales.
Davies’ escalating online behaviour, this week alone, includes defending Elon Musk’s fascist salutes, asserting that trans people shouldn’t be recognised, and demanding that the Welsh Government’s anti-racism action plan be scrapped. So he’d be quite a good fit in Farage’s for-profit limited company, to be fair.
Reform announced last week that it wouldn’t appoint a leader in Wales until after the 2026 Senedd election. On the one hand, it’s an affront that Reform thinks the Welsh electorate shouldn’t know who might be their First Minister ahead of the election. On the other hand, it’s equally depressing that around a quarter of voters will vote for them anyway.
Handbags at dawn
So, this vacancy at Reform UK Ltd – regional manager for Wales – could well be a job that Davies is angling for. Oliver Lewis, Reform’s spokesperson for Wales during the 2024 general election, was in Davies’ political sights last week. Lewis said during a TV interview that immigration into Wales had historically been a good thing. This caused Davies to flip his lid, take time out from ranting about Muslims, and post furiously on X condemning Lewis for an entire week.
Could it be that Davies is trying to portray Lewis as a ‘wet’ and himself as the standard bearer of all things rancid when it comes to punching down on immigrants?
It’ll be interesting to see how the staffing for Reform’s Welsh branch will unfold. Whatever you think of its policy platform, Lewis appears to be a nuanced political operator with thought and reasoning behind his stances. While Davies is known – and proven to be – a human gaffe machine. I hope the company welcomes him with open arms, though it’s likely to cost Reform votes.
What’s going on with indy?
We’re in a really weird place with the Welsh independence debate. There’s been no forward movement on it in recent months, and those politicians talking about it the most are hardline British nationalists and vocal opponents. The politician mentioning independence most frequently is Andrew RT Davies, who hisses “separatists” ad nauseam on social media like a Star Wars baddy, while next to nothing from pro-indy politicians is being framed through independence.
Plaid Cymru, the only party in the Senedd that says it supports independence, is spending political capital on proposing to strengthen the UK via rejoining the EU’s Single Market. This would decimate support for independence by making it almost impossible to achieve democratically, not least because current independence supporters are overwhelmingly pro-EU. So why isn’t Plaid framing independence as the route to rejoin?
As has been made abundantly clear to me over the last few years, “this is how things are done” and “don’t rock the boat.” But what’s being done? For me, support for independence has been driven by external factors, not least Boris Johnson’s chaotic rule and Liz Truss crashing the economy (yes; yes, she did), rather than things the wider movement has made happen.
Independence in the 2026 election
I’m not convinced the debate around independence, supported by a third of voters, will feature heavily in the 2026 Senedd election. I sincerely hope that the Wales Green Party will make a breakthrough so that another voice is added to the pro-indy camp in the Senedd. All indicators suggest it’s a realistic possibility that the Greens will win a seat or two, and that Plaid Cymru will essentially stand still. If the independence cause is to maximise its reach, it needs to move outside of being Plaid’s exclusive (part-time) baby on the national political stage.
There are key differences between the Plaid and Green visions for independence and it would be good to see these play out in our country’s political arena rather than in online niches. Yes, both parties are on the left, but there are some interesting and substantial ideas that don’t converge.
For example, the Greens support Wales becoming an independent republic, Plaid does not. The Greens want a nuclear-free Wales, Plaid doesn’t. There are different approaches to the economy, health, and democracy. It’s great to see nuance in this day and age. I’d like to see it taken to the Senedd and platformed to the entire country, so the debate around independence is live, mainstream, and broadened.
The budget looms
The much-debated Welsh Government budget will drop next month. This will be the pivotal moment prior to the 2026 Senedd election. Labour doesn’t enjoy a majority in the Senedd, so needs the support or abstention of just one MS from another party. It has publicly slammed Plaid Cymru for having the audacity to make suggestions on how the budget could be improved to the point Plaid could support it. Apparently that’s holding the country ransom.
I think Labour has played the comms around this badly – demanding unquestioning obedience from another party smacks of arrogance and entitlement. Then refusing to negotiate that party’s counter-proposals comes across as heavy-handed and authoritarian.
I suspect this is all pure spectacle in any event, as I expect Labour to give the Liberal Democrats enough concessions to see them nod the budget through. But if this doesn’t happen then we’ll be in really unstable waters.
I doubt Starmer will allow the Welsh Government to fall. So will Morgan be ordered to give the Lib Dems more or all of what they want? Or will Secretary of State Jo Stevens MP get the go-ahead to ignore the verdict of the Welsh people’s elected representatives and impose a rejected Labour budget?
You can find out about it here in the next Wales on Wednesday. Cardiff Bay is no US Capitol but that doesn’t mean there’s no drama.
