We have a likely new First Minister. Eluned Morgan, the Baroness of Ely, has replaced Vaughan Gething as the Labour Party’s leader in Wales. Gething, of course, having belatedly fallen on his political sword, following months of scandal and the resignation of a substantial chunk of his cabinet.
Let’s take a moment to acknowledge and celebrate that, for the first time in our country’s history, we have a female leader. This is a truly historic moment and one to be cherished, as it shows clear steps forward for our society. I understand and share concerns around the Baroness’s ministerial record, but that’s a topic for another day. It will no doubt feature heavily as Morgan establishes herself in the role.
Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown
It’s also rare to have an aristocrat leading a European country as a democratically elected member of the national parliament. Wales is now part of a political union led by a Knight of the Realm, with a King as its head of state, and a Baroness leading its own parliament who’s part of the second-largest unelected legislature in the world in the House of Lords.
It all sounds – and is – very feudal. It doesn’t do anything to dissuade people that the UK system is a relic of Empire; a hangover from previous centuries in a country that stubbornly resists fully embracing modern democratic standards.
Morgan’s ascension to Labour’s top job in Wales wasn’t achieved with the endorsement of the Labour Party membership via an election, let alone by the people of Wales generally having a say. It was a coronation. Morgan steps into the role as the only candidate to have secured nominations.
This brings with it a fragility and the worrying fact that nobody – outside the Labour Senedd Group bubble – knows what the Baroness’s priorities will be. A third leader imposed on Wales without a democratic process, just as happened at Westminster from 2019 to 2022. Look how well that went.
As there wasn’t a leadership contest, there was no need for the Baroness of Ely to outline any legislative pledges or vision, beyond trying to stop Labour MS’s from squabbling with each other like ferrets in a sack. Good luck with that.
No, Wales, you’re not allowed the Crown Estate
Speaking of Baronesses, Carmen Smith, the Baroness of Llanfaes, posted a major revelation regarding the Crown Estate on her social media on Tuesday morning. Smith, Plaid Cymru’s representative in the House of Lords, had asked for clarification of whether any discussions took place on devolving the Crown Estate to Wales.
The Crown Estate is an organisation that manages land and resources, and used to be directly owned by the Royal Family. The riverbeds and seabeds of Wales are within its purview. It leases said seabeds to companies, who then place wind farms and so on there.
Profits made by the Crown Estate in Wales go directly to the UK Government, which diverts 15% to the King as part of the Sovereign Grant. In Scotland the Crown Estate is devolved, which means the profits go to the Scottish Government instead. Plaid Cymru and the Wales Green Party steadfastly advocate for Wales to be granted parity with Scotland on this front.
This has also been the position of the Labour Party in Wales for some time. It was therefore interesting to see that commitments on the devolution of the Crown Estate were absent from the Labour Party’s recent manifesto. Interesting, too, to see the idea of giving Wales parity with Scotland being rubbished by prominent Labour MPs. It’s almost as if Labour’s Welsh branch has led the public on a merry dance for years over the issue.
A ‘revolution’ without evolution or devolution
The answer to Smith’s question was a resounding “NO”. It was confirmed that no discussions have taken place between the UK Government and the Welsh Government on this matter. But it was heavily implied that no future discussion will be entertained on it either. The rationale offered is that “introducing a new entity” may put the UK’s net zero targets at risk.
Coincidentally, I’m sure (*cough-cough*), the new UK Government has just announced that the Crown Estate will substantially ramp up the granting of leases in order to facilitate its GB Energy drive. Wales will be at the forefront, due to our geographic location being ideally combined with prevailing winds. Incredible amounts of energy will be generated in Wales, with all the profits from the lease licences conveniently funnelled into the UK Government’s coffers and the Sovereign Grant, bypassing Wales itself.
It’s state-sponsored extraction of desperately-needed cash made in Wales, so it should benefit Wales. I have no objection to Wales playing a leading role in a green energy revolution to drive down energy prices across the UK (which is the stated aim). However, I do strongly object to Wales being denied the public funds which will be generated. Is it hyperbolic to describe this as grand theft from a nation with such high rates of child poverty? Especially in light of the differing status of Scotland?
RT’s war on halal meals
The combative culture warrior who leads the Conservative Party opposition in the Senedd has come in for major criticism this past week. Andrew RT Davies wrote to Vale of Glamorgan Council regarding the lunch offered at Cowbridge School. A constituent of his alleged that meat options are halal only; Davies repeated this in his letter.
Without affording the council the right of reply, the letter was posted on Davies’s social media and rapidly gained traction. The post was latched onto by the far right self-identifying ‘journalist’ Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, aka Tommy Robinson, who shared Davies’s letter over social media. Robinson claimed “a mother requested a non-halal meat meal for her daughter, but was told this was not available!”. The posts garnered the reaction you’d expect from those who follow such extremists.
Cowbridge School countered Davies’s claims, stating that the allegations were incorrect. Instead of accepting the school’s response Davies bit back, taking issue with the “tone” of its statement, then wrote an article doubling down on the claims for the opinion-based ‘news’ outlet GB News. Davies wrote, “children SHOULD NOT be forced to eat halal lunches”.
The council has issued a statement reaffirming that Davies’s allegations are unfounded – the school offers halal and non-halal meal options, stored separately and prepared via appropriate methods. Again, instead of accepting the response, Davies wrote another letter demanding further clarification.
That his rhetoric is supported and amplified by figures such as Robinson – an Irish passport holder and resident of Spain currently on the run from contempt of court proceedings – should deeply concern the Conservative Party in Wales. Is this really the brand of audience and endorsement it now seeks?
Unprecedented polling
New Wales, a new non-party-affiliated think tank focused on Welsh politics and governance – full disclosure: I’m involved – has produced two projections on the Senedd seat share based on recent voting-intention polling. Datasets from YouGov and the Welsh Electoral Study by Cardiff University show staggering losses for the two main UK parties. Drops in support of a combined 25% of voters would be a seismic change on the Welsh political scene.
New Wales projections suggest Labour is severely weakened by Gething’s scandals, under threat of not coming out on top for the first time ever in a Welsh election. Plaid Cymru trails by 1% in the voting intention data, just six seats. New Wales commented, “Despite scraping in first, Labour’s position as the biggest party would be precarious, with a 2% swing to Plaid Cymru seeing Labour lose first place.”
The new Senedd electoral system will expand the parliament from 60 seats to 96, seeing outcomes on a more proportional basis. The method gives bigger parties an advantage. But that hasn’t stopped Reform UK rocketing in projections. It’d take 16 seats if a Senedd election was held tomorrow.
Though the new system is more proportional than the farcical first-past-the-post, it’s still unfair. The Green Party, Liberal Democrats, and Abolish have a combined 19% share of the vote in recent polling, yet in the new system would have a combined seat total of one. That lone representative would likely be Jane Dodds, thanks to the Lib Dems’s only remaining powerbase in Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe.
With Lib Dems at 6% in polls, this would leave 14% of voters (‘Other’ parties included) denied their desired representation, while bigger players enjoy a larger share than they should. Steps forward in terms of modern democracy? Definitely, but much scope for improvement.
Budget barriers
Turning back to the current Senedd term, we face an interesting scenario. It’s likely that the Baroness of Ely will be confirmed as First Minister, but may be unable to pass her government’s budget. If that were to happen it would collapse the Welsh Government and trigger an automatic general election for the Senedd, which would take place on the current (old) electoral system.
In the 60-seat Senedd the maths in play are extremely important. Labour has 30 seats, which is not a majority. It would need the support or abstention of one of the three opposition parties, or a lone rebel, for its budget to pass and to keep the Welsh Government afloat. That’s on the assumption that the entire Labour Group supports the budget, which is the most likely outcome here – although several MS’s didn’t give Morgan their endorsement.
The Conservatives are the official opposition with 16 seats. Davies hinted he’s open to negotiations on the budget, but this is more likely to be performative politics than a serious chance of Labour finding the policies of Welsh Tories palatable. They’ve been vociferously anti-whatever-it-is the Welsh Government has done throughout this term. I’d be amazed if the Tories voted with the new Labour administration for this budget.
Plaid Cymru was recently in a cooperation agreement with Labour until compelled to withdraw from it earlier this year, following the issues surrounding Gething’s premiership. Plaid has 12 seats, and refused to give a firm answer when asked if it’ll support Morgan’s budget. Given Plaid’s positioning in polls, its rhetoric around the new Labour UK Government, and its calls for a full Senedd election, it would be seen as a major political u-turn if it supported the Welsh Government on this budget.
Labour Party wobbly in Wales
The Liberal Democrats have just the one seat, but this would be decisive if Dodds was persuaded to support Morgan’s budget. Dodds has said she’s not open to any form of coalition, and is under calls not to be seen as repeating the past Lib Dem mistake of supporting an austerity programme. Being seen to support Labour after it’s announced billions-worth of cuts in Westminster would raise the ghosts of Nick Clegg and George Osborne’s austerity project, administered by their coalition government.
That leaves the lone independent MS, Rhys ab Owen, who was recently expelled from Plaid Cymru following investigations into inappropriate behaviour. Would Labour attempt to court his support? If so, it remains doubtful ab Owen would be open to it. Not to mention the furore that blew up in the latter days of Gething’s car-crash government, when rumours circulated he was considering cultivating ab Owen’s support; rumours both parties denied.
There’s also the unlikely prospect of one or more Labour MS’s not supporting or abstaining on Morgan’s budget. So, all-in-all, the Welsh Government is in an unstable position, and could be fatally torpedoed politically by opposition parties acting as a collective. That said, it’s unlikely the Conservatives will fancy an election just now, so perhaps they’ll abstain! Stay tuned.
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