As ever, a great deal has happened in the fortnight since my last recap. We have a general election on the cards, which will take place on Thursday 4 July.
In this edition of Wales on Wednesday we’ll take a look at how the campaigns of the major players have developed thus far. That said, there are still some pretty significant goings-on at the Senedd which are also very much worth reviewing.
The Labour Party
The party appears set to enter Downing Street with a record-breaking majority, if UK-wide polls are anything to go by. That trend is the same in Wales, with Labour in a very comfortable position in 27 of our 32 constituencies. Yes, 32 this time, not 40. The volume of Wales’ voice at Westminster is being lowered by 20%.
Labour is in for a big tussle with Plaid Cymru for the constituencies of Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin, while they retain an outside chance of toppling the Conservatives in Montgomeryshire. Starmer’s candidates in Brecon and Ceredigion are unlikely to mount a serious challenge to the incumbents, despite some very ‘creative’ graphics on their social media posts.
The uniform swing projections for Labour are lower in Wales than in the UK – not that this stops some candidates from presenting graphics with the inflated UK-wide swing percentages included. Polling swing percentages are lower in Wales, with more modest increases than in England and Scotland, because the Labour vote held up well here during Jeremy Corbyn’s 2019 campaign.
Labour’s current campaign, despite high polling figures, has stumbled out of the blocks somewhat in Wales. Keir Starmer upset much of the party faithful by imposing key allies on two of the safest Labour seats in Wales – Cardiff West and Swansea West. This drew a statement of condemnation from the socialist Welsh Labour Grassroots group and prompted Darren Williams, the prominent left wing head of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) Union, to resign his party membership.
Causing a stink
Beth Winter, the former Labour MP for the now-scrapped Cynon Valley constituency, hasn’t held back in her criticism of the decision to parachute in two London-based Starmer allies. The candidates have no clear connections to their new constituencies. Alex Barros-Curtis, the Labour Party’s Executive Director of Legal Affairs, grew up in Prestatyn. According to some, that makes him an ideal candidate for Cardiff West.
Since controversially losing the selection process for the new Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare constituency, Winter has become a bit of a maverick. Her interventions are often at odds with the party line. Some might wonder how long it will be before she’s purged from the party.
Vaughan Gething’s donations scandal is still causing a stink – quite literally, in Pembrokeshire. A company in the same business portfolio as Dauson Environmental is currently at the centre of an environmental catastrophe at Withyhedge tip. This issue became a main focus of Henry Tufnell, the Labour candidate in Pembrokeshire, to the point that he said openly he didn’t want Gething campaigning with him. This went out of the window days later as the two strolled around Tenby enjoying an ice cream and campaigning. Tufnell seems a good fit for Starmer’s Labour.
It really is the Labour Party’s election to lose in Wales. Anything less than 27 of the 32 seats would be a big shock. At this stage, taking any additional seats would be seen as exceeding expectations, in my view. And it serves to highlight the absolute farce that is the outdated ‘first past the post’ electoral system. A party with less than 50% of the Welsh vote appears guaranteed to win 84% of Welsh seats. It’s hard to justify – unless it’s your party that benefits, I suppose.
The Conservative Party
As Rishi Sunak’s shock election announcement was drowned out by rain and pro-EU protestor Steve Bray’s boomboxes, I’m sure a brief breath of relief was had at Andrew RT Davies’ HQ in deepest, darkest Cowbridge. News of the election overshadowed what would otherwise have been a week of very serious (and negative) headlines for the Conservatives in Wales. So let’s have a recap.
Natasha Asghar MS, the shadow Transport Minister, has been placed under investigation by the Senedd Standards Commissioner. Asghar is being investigated over complaints that she misled the public about the Labour Welsh Government’s default 20mph policy, specifically with regard to the word ‘blanket’. This serious issue could easily have been avoided via a casual glance at a dictionary.
Another major headline for the Welsh Tories was that Laura Anne Jones MS has been placed under police investigation. The Shadow Minister for Culture, Sport, Tourism, and Social Justice is facing a probe into suspected falsification of expenses claims.
The complaint came from the Senedd Standards Commissioner, who was sent alleged messages relating to the issue. Jones has received public backing from Andrew RT Davies, and stated that she will fully comply with the investigation.
Serious stuff
The Welsh Conservative election campaign kicked off with a launch video in what appeared to be Andrew RT Davies’ combine-harvester shed. The dozen-ish activists present forgot to cheer in the right place during his speech, which was hard not to find funny. Davies proclaimed his party ready to defy the polls.
Polls indicate a potential wipeout of Conservative MPs in Wales. Current projections are that they stand a favourable chance of retaining Montgomeryshire, but that’s as good as it gets for Sunak’s Welsh contingent. The Lib Dems are poised to seriously challenge Fay Jones MP in Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe. David TC Davies MP, the current Welsh Secretary, is the apparent underdog in a battle with Labour to retain his Monmouthshire seat. In short, things look grim if you’re a Welsh Conservative.
Aside from Monmouthshire, there are two other constituencies with an outside chance of Davies’ calls to defy the polls becoming a reality. The former Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb MP, has an outside chance in Pembrokeshire. The Withyhedge scandal may prove to be an issue that could benefit Crabb’s campaign, which isn’t accounted for in national polling.
Darren Millar MS is running to succeed the retiring ERG grandee David Jones MP in Clwyd North. Polling indicates Millar may have a fighting chance against Labour councillor Gill German. He’s retained a consistently high majority throughout his 17 years in the Senedd, and the new Clwyd North boundaries contain the Tory powerbase of the old Clwyd West constituency. This seems to fly under many commentators’ radars.
The Welsh Conservatives aren’t offering anything so far in this campaign other than rhetoric about small boats and Rwanda, forcing teenagers into the army, and criticism of Labour management of the Welsh NHS. It’s looking bleak for them, in my view.
Plaid Cymru
Rhun ap Iorwerth leads Plaid Cymru into an election campaign for the first time. The charismatic leader has made “standing up for Wales” the main thrust of Plaid’s campaign, and it currently looks like the party may be on course to increase its share of the vote by up to 50%.
The boundary changes in Wales have deprived Plaid Cymru of the Arfon constituency and it has moved to goalposts in Caerfyrddin. It won four seats in 2019 and will be looking to do the same this time.
Polling indicates that Plaid is very safe in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and looks set to comfortably retain the enlarged Ceredigion constituency, with Labour posing a distant outside threat in the latter. Plaid is targeting the seats of Caerfyrddin and Ynys Môn heavily and will be confident of winning in both. We’ll likely see strong Plaid votes in Bangor-Aberconwy and Llanelli, albeit not enough to challenge in either.
Plaid’s chances in Caerfyrddin will have been buoyed by the decision of Jonathan Edwards MP not to seek re-election. The ongoing situation around Edwards – who received a police caution for domestic violence – has proven divisive for Plaid locally; and nationally to a lesser degree. Commentary around Plaid’s chances in this seat has hinged on whether Edwards would stand or not. It’s shaping up to be a Plaid-Labour battleground, despite being contested by Conservative former Welsh Secretary Simon Hart MP.
Devolution and independence
The battle for Ynys Môn appears much closer between Plaid Cymru and Labour than in Caerfyrddin. Plaid have chosen Llinos Medi as their candidate, a prominent county councillor on the island who’s had a very good campaign to date. The party promotes Medi constantly and she’s been a key figure in recent party comms. The island is also one of Labour’s top battlegrounds across the UK, no doubt due to it being home to the Wylfa power plant site and a new freeport.
Rhun ap Iorwerth has sought to cut through the Sunak vs Starmer portrayal of this election, stating that it’s not just a two-horse race in Wales. Plaid’s messaging so far has focused on calling for a fairer devolution deal from Westminster, not independence. Indeed, independence has barely been mentioned. The party seems committed to incremental devolution, leading eventually to Welsh independence. It would be helpful if the party laid out its approach to this firmly and clearly.
The creation of a sovereign wealth fund, similar to those in Norway and other Scandinavian countries, is a really good proposal from Plaid. The party would create this fund by gaining control of the Crown Estate via devolution, a portion of the profits then flowing into the fund. The Crown Estate owns the riverbeds and seabeds of Wales, amongst other assets, and earns profits from selling licences for such things as offshore wind farms. The potential here is obvious.
Other parties
The Green Party will contest all 32 seats in Wales. According to polling, it may increase its vote by 300–500%. This indicates that the Greens will build upon their greatly increased haul of votes in the 2021 Senedd Election. And it will be feeling the benefit of trends over the border in England, where a number of people have turned to the party from Labour.
That said, it appears unlikely that the Greens will be a real challenge for any seat in Wales. But the party is quickly becoming a home for those disillusioned with the UK duopoly. There’s a decent chance that constituencies close to the Wales-England border and in large urban centres will follow voting trends in England. As a result we could see larger Green votes in those areas.
All eyes will be on Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe for the Liberal Democrats as they seek to topple incumbent Tory MP Fay Jones. Unsurprisingly, the Welsh Lib Dems have been dedicating resources to regaining their traditional powerbase in Wales. Last week the constituency was visited by Ed Davey, the UK Liberal Democrat leader, and is the focus of the party’s comms strategy.
Wales-specific polling has the Lib Dems as the closest challengers to the Conservatives in this seat, and they’ll be hopeful of regaining the seat they last held in 2019. If David Chadwick is successful in his bid to become the Lib Dem MP for Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe it’ll be a major success for the party. Positive results have been few and far between for the Lib Dems over the last decade and a win here could serve as a catalyst to revitalise the party. Another defeat, on the other hand, would surely be seen as a major disappointment.
What next for Wales on Wednesday
Unsurprisingly, the general election will take centre stage for the next month or so. But even as this was being edited for publication, the vote of no confidence (VONC) in Gething as First Minister of Wales was taking place. He appeared to cry publicly, moved by the support of a colleague, during the speeches leading up to the vote.
I had originally written: “It looks more likely than not that the VONC will fail as Labour MS’s aren’t expected to break ranks during an election period. That said, it only takes one not to be available or break ranks and Mr Gething could find himself in even trickier waters than he is now … my prediction is that no Labour MS will do the morally correct thing and therefore Mr Gething will survive this VONC. Happy to be wrong!”
Well, you could call me happy, as the vote passed with 29 votes in favour and 27 against. The VONC isn’t binding, as it was put forward in opposition time. In theory, Gething could simply ignore it and plough on regardless. However, surely the fact that more than one of his MS’s did break ranks means Gething would feel compelled to resign? It’s a shame tomorrow isn’t another Wednesday.
It’s amazing how the London press ignores Welsh politics almost entirely, seeming to assume that Wales is a boring backwater news-wise. They’re really missing a trick.
